Winners, Losers and Coalition Questions

Germany went to the polls on February 23 in an election held seven months ahead of schedule, prompted by the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s tripartite coalition in November 2024.

That government, comprising Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the Green Party, and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), was one of the most unpopular in post-World War II German history. With only 14% of the public satisfied with its performance one week before it dissolved, the “Traffic Light Coalition”, as it was known, was an ambitious experiment that never truly came to fruition. The parties’ 2021 coalition agreement, entitled “Dare to Make More Progress”, included priorities such as expanding social welfare for children, families, and pensioners; accelerating the green transition; ensuring affordable rent prices; and improving government and schools through digitalization. Little of this came to pass.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine just three months after the pact was concluded irrevocably changed Germany’s trajectory, with spending priorities shifting to defense and international aid. Energy prices rose after Berlin stopped importing cheap Russian gas, a move that exacerbated existing problems from a flagging economy and high rents. Then came a 2023 Constitutional Court ruling that barred the government from using leftover COVID-19 relief funds to finance the green transition. That decision blew a €60 billion hole in the federal budget. The SPD and the Greens responded with a proposal to suspend the country’s debt brake, a constitutional mechanism that limits the amount of new debt the federal government may assume. A suspension would have allowed Berlin to continue funding social and climate-oriented programs without reducing support for Ukraine. The FDP, however, staunchly opposed the proposal and pushed to reduce social spending instead. The dispute ultimately led to the coalition’s demise, and a vote of no confidence on December 16 officially triggered a snap election.

All these factors left German voters ready for change, even if many did not know to whom to turn for it. A public opinion survey published two days before the election showed 22% of voters were still undecided. But for those who had made a choice, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), topped the poll with 29% of the vote, followed by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 21%. The SPD, at 15%, was poised for one of its worst results, with the Greens just behind at 13%. It was unclear if the third member of the former government would even return to the Bundestag, as the FDP hovered just under the 5% threshold needed for parliamentary representation. Another unknown was if the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), founded by the former star of the Left Party, would replicate its successes in last year’s European Parliament and eastern state elections.

For the better part of a year, it seemed that Sahra Wagenknecht would deliver the death knell to her former comrades.The Left lagged at 3% just a month before the election despite pouring tremendous resources into “Mission Silver Locks”, an effort to hype the popular, now gray-haired politicians of its old guard. However, it was one of the Left’s newer stars, Heidi Reichinnek, who saved the day for the party. The first-term parliamentarian went viral online for a fiery denunciation of CDU head Friedrich Merz after the Christian Democrat tried to push through an immigration reform bill with AfD support. Generating millions of views on social media, the tattooed, red lipstick-wearing 36-year-old resonated with younger Germans, and it showed just in time. One poll taken two weeks before the election showedThe Left garnering the support of 19% of those under 30.That youth vote helped propel the party to secure 8.8% of all ballots cast, while it was the BSW who did not clear the 5% hurdle at a crushing 4.97%.

With the exception of the Left Party surge, the results were largely as expected. The CDU/CSU received the largest share of the vote, 28.6%, followed by the AfD at 20.8%. The SPD got 16.4%, and the Greens 11.6%, both falling well short of their 2021 results. The FDP also performed poorly. Its4.3% share of the vote means ejection from the Bundestag for the second time since 2013. Whether the party is able to reinvent itself and stage a comeback, as it did in 2017, remains to be seen. In a reversal of fortune, the Left Party’s revival could push the BSW into obscurity, at least on the national level, but BSW’s popularity in eastern Germany means that it cannot be discounted yet.

While the CDU underperformed to some by garnering less than 30% of the vote, since the FDP and BSW did not make it into the Bundestag, it can form a coalition with just one other party.The SPD’s result is a far fall from grace after netting 25.7% in the last election, but it remains the CDU’s most likely partner. Germans voted in 2021 for the parties of the Traffic Light Coalition because they wanted change, and may now see the revival of the Merkel-era Grand Coalition as a return to stability. But the ongoing war in Ukraine, a rocky transatlantic alliance, and a worsening domestic economic outlook mean more turbulence is likely regardless of who takes up the mantle in Berlin.

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