Politics & Society
The Gambler
“I’ve decided to give you once more the opportunity to decide your parliamentary future by vote, I therefore have decided to dissolve the National Assembly tonight.” In a televised address to 11 million of his citizens, French President Emmanuel Macron made the historic decision on the heels of the European election results.
“I’ve decided to give you once more the opportunity to decide your parliamentary future by vote, I therefore have decided to dissolve the National Assembly tonight.” In a televised address to 11 million of his citizens, French President Emmanuel Macron made the historic decision on the heels of the European election results.
Fifty-two percent of French citizens voted in the European elections. The National Rally (RN) had a historic win. The far-right party received 31.4% of the vote. The presidential camp obtained less than half of that, reaching only 14.6% of the vote. Never has a French president made such a drastic decision in the aftermath of the European elections. But Macron isn’t one to shy away from a political gamble.
From calling NATO “braindead” in his famous interview with The Economist to passing an incredibly unpopular pension reform through the use of constitutional article 49.3 (often referred to as a nuclear legislative weapon), the president has had his fair share of moments shooting himself in the metaphorical political foot. While these decisions came with their own mountains of backlash, Macron might not be able to outrun the consequences of this latest one. The decision to dissolve the National Assembly could very much lead to the demise of Macron’s political legacy and change France’s political trajectory over the next decade.
Scenario A: Going Bust
France goes to the polls. The RN sweeps the vote, increasing their share in the National Assembly from 89 to 200+ seats. While not reaching the absolute majority of 289, it’s enough to impact political legislation in France. The new government is divided and enters forced cohabitation, where the president is from a different political party than the parliamentary majority. The prime minister is selected from the majority party. It’s no other than the RN’s young, charismatic, winner-of-the-European-elections, Jordan Bardella.
The next presidential election isn’t until 2027, which gives the RN two and a half years to prove to French citizens what it’s able to accomplish. The far-right gets stronger as it builds coalitions with those willing on the traditional right, Les Républicains, and even further right with Reconquest!
While the left (the newly-reborn coalition, Popular Front) continues to scramble to find itself, Macron’s party continues to suffer in its identity crisis: struggling to define its political future. Les Républicains continues to struggle in the polls as the party divides itself between the RN camp or not. The RN is the last man standing, and gets to show itself off as a European strongman — branding itself as fervently defending national values.
Scenario B: Full House
France goes to the polls. The RN sweeps the vote, increasing their share in the National Assembly from 89 to 200+ seats. While not reaching the absolute majority of 289, it’s enough to impact political legislation in France. The new government is divided and enters forced cohabitation, where the president is from a different political party than the parliamentary majority. The prime minister is selected from the majority party. It’s no other than the RN’s young, charismatic, winner-of-the-European-elections, Jordan Bardella.
The RN starts strong, but as time progresses infighting and political ego begins to fragment the party. Le Pen sees Bardella stealing her limelight, and vying for the 2027 Presidential candidate’s seat. Reconquest! doesn’t feel legitimately appreciated by the RN and continues to refuse to work with them.
As the infighting unfolds, Les Républicains see this fragmentation and choose to work with the presidential party to rebuild a stronger, unified party on the right. While President Macron has to answer to criticism that he’s now completely lurched to the right, he’s able to govern and pass legislation as his party becomes stronger. This legislation answers to what French citizens might want, and isn’t distracted by political infighting.
Meanwhile, as 2027 looms on the horizon, former Prime Minister — and incredibly popular political figure — Gabriel Attal has preserved his legacy and will be able to present himself as a strong candidate for the presidential election. He campaigns from the newly rebranded Renaissance party (which by that time will have changed its name for the third time).
The country has seen that the RN has not been able to deliver on their promises over the past two and a half years and starts to look for other ways to vote in future elections, ensuring that neither Le Pen or Bardella are guaranteed a presidential win.
Rolling the Political Dice
The future of France is not limited to these scenarios (as on the left, the Popular Front is rising in the political ranks) but they offer a snapshot of contrasting political outcomes if the RN does sweep the vote, which, at the time of writing, does seem to be the likely scenario. Current polls estimate that the RN would win 34% of the vote, the Popular Front would come in second at 28% and lastly, the presidential camp would receive 19% of the vote.
Macron’s decision to hold snap elections is not the surprising factor, as this had been rumored to happen. Instead, what is surprising is the timing of the new elections. With three weeks to get candidates out, coalitions decided, and voting ready to go: this is the shortest election cycle in the history of French legislative elections. The first round begins on June 30 and the second concludes July 7.
Calling the snap election on the back of the European elections — where the RN performed incredibly well — is a dangerous game to play. This gives the far-right party the electoral leverage to continue to get votes and run on that momentum.
In his concluding statement to the French people, Macron gave his electorate a defining ultimatum: “To be French means to always to meet the times when called on, to know the price of a vote and the taste of liberty, to act no matter the circumstance in a responsible manner — it means to write history rather than to passively experience it.”
While the French political future hangs in the balance, Macron is going all in.