Coalition, Opposition, Extinction

Germany’s 21st Bundestag convened on March 25, the first meeting of a new parliament with 630 members.

The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union (CSU), having won the February 23 national election with 28.6% of the vote, hold 208 seats. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), with 20.8%, captured 152 seats and established itself as the largest opposition party. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) earned a historically low 16.4%, but its 120 seats are enough to make it the CDU/CSU’s presumptive coalition partner. The Greens fell to 11.6% and 85 seats, while the Left Party’s last-minute surge propelled it to 8.8% of the vote and a key 64 seats. The remaining seat is occupied by a member of the South Schleswig Voter’s Association (SSW), which represents the Danish and Frisian minority. It is exempt from the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation anchored in German electoral law.

One notable exclusion from this Bundestag is the Free Democratic Party (FDP), a member of the past governing coalition. The FDP netted just 4.3% of the vote, falling short of the 5% hurdle for the second time since 2013. The other contender to miss the mark was the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). With 4.972% of the vote, it was roughly a mere 13,000 votes shy of gaining entry into the parliament.

Each of these seven parties (excluding the SSW) now faces unique challenges, whether or not they are in government.

CDU/CSU

Despite their clear victory, the CDU and CSU oversee a slim majority in the new Bundestag thanks to the SPD’s middling performance. Friedrich Merz, CDU party head and presumptive chancellor, once said that his party would halve the AfD’s approval ratings by returning to classical conservative values after the increasingly liberal approach taken by former Chancellor Angela Merkel over her 16-year tenure. The AfD’s electoral performance proved him wrong. He will now need to negotiate carefully with the SPD to enact a conservative agenda that does not require far right votes. Failure to do so would generate swift parliamentary and public backlash, as Merz has learned. Disagreements within the coalition over defense could force the CDU/CSU to turn to the Greens for additional support, and for constitutional reform, which requires a two-thirds majority, the CDU/CSU would need to find common ground with the Greens and, even more unnerving for the conservatives, the Left, to pass without the far right.

SPD

In a time of growing domestic and international challenges, the SPD faces its own crisis of personality. The election result was the party’s worst showing since 1887, reflecting its struggle to define a unique political platform. Historically a worker’s party, the SPD has irked some of its blue-collar voters with proposals to expand social spending for new arrivals to Germany. At the same time, the party’s older and more conservative voters migrated to the CDU while the Greens and the Left Party attracted much of the young, progressive electorate. The BSW’s soft stance on Russia lured away some of the SPD’s Ostpolitik-generation, and others who were dissatisfied with the last (SPD-led) coalition drifted to the anti-establishment AfD. To return to greater prominence, the SPD must redefine itself for voters.

AfD

It was unimaginable when the AfD was founded in 2013 as an esoteric, anti-Euro party that it would become the Bundestag’s second-largest force just over a decade later. The party’s platform today is dominated by xenophobic, anti-establishment and anti-European rhetoric, which has prompted other parties to build a “firewall” against collaboration. This has allowed the AfD to rail against the “unjustness” of German democracy and claim that, as a lawfully elected party, it should be able to fully participate in government. For eastern German voters, particularly those who lived through decades of unfree elections, this tactic has been highly successful. The AfD won nearly every district in the East in February’s election. The party may not be in the next governing coalition, but its position as the largest opposition will give it an opportunity to demonstrate the leadership its officials crave. A party that has been mired in legal battles, internal strife and administrative errors, the AfD may find it benefits more from staying out of power.

Greens

In 2021, the Greens, widely seen as the party of the future, made large gains with youth voters. However, after joining the last coalition and scaling back some of its platform to contend with the realities of daily governance, they party lost some of its younger, more ideological following. To regain influence, the Greens will need to court the youth vote as a progressive party willing to move boldly to protect Germany’s environment while still presenting themselves as a serious political partner that can pragmatically manage the country’s military and economy.

Left Party

Six weeks before the election, it was unclear if the Left would make it into the next Bundestag. A party of aging communists with a mostly eastern German base, the party had seen its share of the vote decline steadily since reunification. However, the Left’s viral outrage to Friedrich Merz’s attempt in January to pass migration reform with the AfD’s help resonated with voters, particularly the young. The Left’s subsequent electoral surge puts it in a powerful position in the next Bundestag. And without Sahra Wagenknecht’s polarizing influence, the party has an opportunity to be a credible dealmaker. To accomplish that, the Left will need a well-defined platform that will resonate with a skeptical centrist coalition to ensure that pre-election rhetorical momentum translates into political influence.

FDP

For decades, the FDP was a mainstay of postwar German politics. Complaints about the party’s lack of diversity and policies that are beholden to the rich led to its failure, in 2013, to pass the 5% threshold. The FDP reinvented itself under Christian Lindner, a young, charismatic leader who elevated women and people of color in the ranks, and added digital issues to the party’s platform. His success returned the FDP to parliament in 2017. However, an unequivocal commitment to fiscal responsibility caused the downfall of the former coalition and disillusioned enough voters to bring about another parliamentary ejection. The party will need to pivot again if it is to rejoin the Bundestag ranks in 2029.

BSW

Many observers saw the end of the already-ailing Left Party when its star, Sahra Wagenknecht, broke away to form her own movement in January 2024, taking a significant number of colleagues with her. The split was rewarded later that year when the BSW overperformed in the European Parliament election and swept three eastern German state elections. Expectations were therefore high that her economically far-left but socially far-right party would next enter the Bundestag. But Wagenknecht’s Russia-friendly platform was unnerving to voters, as were concerns about the BSW’s ability to be nationally representative when it revolves so heavily around its founder’s personality. The party could reorganize and develop a more palatable national platform. If it does not, the BSW risks remaining relegated to the East.

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