The Third Way

In May 2024, tensions in New Caledonia reached a breaking point.

After decades of relative stability, the semi-autonomous French territory in the South Pacific, descended into violent unrest, as a controversial voting measure approved by the French National Assembly and Senate ignited long-simmering political and socioeconomic grievances among the indigenous Kanak people. Almost overnight, the archipelago moved to the center of France’s political consciousness.

In the months that followed, Paris calmed the situation in New Caledonia. Through a combination of diplomacy, military force and technological prowess at debunking misinformation and disinformation, President Emmanuel Macron’s government quelled the violence and reestablished a tenuous equilibrium. Despite doing so the French government has been forced to reckon with difficult questions about its relationships with its overseas territories and the Indo-Pacific.

Islands on the Edge

New Caledonia occupies a unique status within the French Republic. Unlike many other French overseas territories, which are variously classed as overseas departments or overseas collectivities, the archipelago is administered as a sui generis collectivity. This designation has allowed for the gradual transfer of governing powers from France to the local administration over a period of several decades. As a result, New Caledonia exists in a sort of middle ground, wholly autonomous in some respects and deeply tethered to France in others.

While this compromise has been fairly durable, it has long been controversial among New Caledonians. This has been particularly true among the indigenous Kanak people, who make up roughly 40% of the population. For many New Caledonians of Kanak descent, the arrangement smacks of colonialism, a sentiment that has fueled the decades-long independence movement. In an attempt to address these grievances, France agreed to the 1998 Nouméa Accord, which granted New Caledonia its unique status and reduced the ability of New Caledonian residents of European descent to vote in local elections. Though this agreement ensured Kanak participation in the political process, it effectively disenfranchised a large portion of the rest of the population.

It was efforts to refranchise those of European descent that touched off the 2024 unrest. In April 2024, the French Senate voted to amend the constitution to allow individuals living in New Caledonia for more than 10 years to vote in local elections. For many pro-independence New Caledonians, this move was seen as an attempt to dilute indigenous political power and reassert French control by increasing the number of residents of European descent eligible to vote. After several peaceful protests failed to halt the vote, violence erupted on the streets of Nouméa, New Caledonia’s capital, and rapidly expanded to other parts of the archipelago. Over the following months, riots and clashes with French security forces resulted in at least 13 deaths (11 civilians and 2 police), as well as hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage.

Broader Implications

For Paris, these developments were deeply troubling. Despite New Caledonia’s small size and location on the periphery of French sovereignty, the archipelago holds outsized importance for France. Economically, New Caledonia is the world’s third-largest producer of nickel, an element that has rapidly grown in demand due to its role in the production of batteries, crucial for the growth of the electric vehicle industry. As a result of the 2024 clashes, nickel mining came to an abrupt halt, greatly reducing exports for several months. For France, which has invested heavily in renewable energy in recent years, this disruption was painful.

Beyond such economic concerns, the protests also posed a considerable threat to France’s strategic ambitions in the region. With tensions between the United States and China mounting, Paris has increasingly sought to portray itself as a viable alternative for Indo-Pacific partners – a “third way”. Given New Caledonia’s proximity to Australia – a key French partner – and central location in the Pacific Islands, it serves as an indispensable forward base for French influence in the region.

A Third Way Forward

The protests and their aftermath provided an opportunity for France to flex its “third way” muscle, especially because of its sophisticated efforts to combat large scale hybrid attacks from foreign adversaries. While concerns about France’s governance and its relationship with the Kanak population in New Caledonia are legitimate, the unrest provided an opportunity for foreign adversaries seeking to flood digital spaces with fear and misinformation.

Within days of the protests erupting, the French government demonstrated its skill in debunking the massive mis- and disinformation campaigns that were swirling around the internet with officials quickly drawing attention to the inflammatory effects of foreign interference.

France’s foreign influence monitoring agency, VIGINUM, coordinated these efforts, identifying and publicizing thousands of examples of foreign interference linked to Azerbaijan. Controversially, French officials also utilized emergency powers to impose a temporary ban on TikTok, citing its role as a vector for influence.

Frustrated with France’s close ties with rival Armenia, Azerbaijan has increasingly advocated for New Caledonia’s independence. In July 2023, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev created the Baku Initiative Group that has as its sole purpose to “support the liberation movement against French colonialism”- with New Caledonia, front and center. The protests also opened the door up to Russian interference. While Russia has denied involvement, a spokeswoman of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs released an official statement condemning France and its colonial approach to New Caledonia in the weeks following the protest.

Next Steps

After months of debate, the voting reform bill was ultimately dropped by the French government, bringing the protests to an end. Several months later, in December 2024, the pro-Independence government in New Caledonia collapsed. Elections were called, and as of early January 2025, there is a new president in New Caledonia. President Alcide Ponga is a known French loyalist who has stated that the people await a “signal of hope” after the violence. This clear shift in the New Caledonian government could help ease relations between France and New Caledonia and offer France the regional stability that it desperately seeks.

Throughout his tenure as president, Emmanuel Macron has touted France’s role as a major player in the Indo-Pacific. With the United States turning inward and China facing domestic challenges of its own, the time for French ascendance in the region may have arrived. If Macron is able to avoid being sidelined by domestic politics and a revolving door of prime ministers, France could seize a pivotal moment on the global stage. At the heart of it all lies New Caledonia.

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